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Remarks by Mr. Schofield to the Aero Club, April 1999

Thank you Walt.

You may wish to leave now as the airplane I plan to talk about is not likely to be high on the plans of the regional airlines.

Over the years I am sure many of you have watched those funny, flickering old movies of man’s early attempts to fly. Likewise, over the years the covers of Popular Science and other magazines have featured bigger, almost unbelievably large aircraft of the future. And while some of those designs looked a little futuristic, has not the airplane industry always pursued the faster, farther, bigger airplane? Is it any wonder Airbus plans to build the Flagship of the 21st Century - the next big airplane?

There is a consensus among analysts world-wide that air traffic growth will average 5% per year for the foreseeable future. World traffic will double in 15 years and nearly triple in 20 years. Coping with such growth will be a tremendous challenge for the whole industry: airlines, airports, air traffic control and manufacturers. Nevertheless, the air transport industry is no stranger to growth: it has been growing for the last 50 years. This growth would not have been possible without parallel growth of aircraft productivity, through developments in speed, fuel efficiency and capacity.

Airline productivity jumped in 1970 with the arrival of the Boeing 747 - more than twice the size of its predecessors. Since then, productivity improvements have been minor. The time has now come for a new, larger aircraft, to pick up the pace of progress.

Operating in a market with such strong underlying growth presents many challenges, and forecasters must study market behavior closely to translate traffic growth into a demand for new aircraft. Some growth is absorbed by improvements in utilization and higher load factors of the existing fleet. But the majority of traffic growth is absorbed by both “fragmentation” (increases in flight frequencies, opening of new city pairs) and increases in aircraft capacity. The traveler’s ideal world provides direct, non-stop air services between all points at convenient times - the ability to go where you want, when you want. This points the way toward the creation of aircraft appropriately-sized to meet those market demands. And that is why Airbus Industrie recently introduced the A330-200 and has launched the A340-500/600, which will cater to these needs.

But the vast majority of passengers are sensitive to the price of their ticket. This has led to the development of hub-and-spoke networks linking more cities at lower fares. The resulting consolidation has produced above-average growth on trunk routes and drives the need for larger aircraft like the A3XX. The major markets for larger aircraft will be Transatlantic, Trans-Pacific, Asia-Europe and within Asia. These are the markets where the bulk of today’s 747 fleet is gainfully employed. As such, the arrival of a larger aircraft with lower cost of operation will have a profound effect on the world’s airlines.

The Airbus Industrie Global Market Forecast predicts the demand for jet aircraft over the next 20 years. Once existing aircraft orders have been deducted, we expect an open market of more than 14,000 aircraft over this period. The market for very large aircraft will be concentrated: both geographically, with over half the projected deliveries expected to go to airlines domiciled in the Asia-Pacific region, and in terms of customers, with 20 airlines taking more than 70% of the aircraft. Although the demand for very large aircraft only represents 10% of the total, it accounts for more than 25% of the potential business; that is over $300 billion. Thus, considering its size and strategic importance, Airbus is committed to entering this market segment.

Airbus Industrie, the company that invented the Twin-Aisle Twin, is hard at work on the development of the world’s first Twin-Aisle, Twin-Deck aircraft: the A3XX.

The A3XX will feature two wide-body cabins running the full length of the aircraft with wide stairs both forward and aft. The spacious entrance area will be reminiscent of a cruise liner, with a straight, dual-lane staircase leading to the upper deck. Both cabins can be fitted with wider seats than those found in the largest aircraft built to date, and the lower-deck area is designed to accommodate a wide variety of passenger facilities as well as the full range of industry-standard cargo pallets and containers.

The A3XX design teams are focusing on full flexibility: flexibility in terms of the variety of models available, a flexible balance between passengers and cargo, as well as the flexibility to modify cabins overnight. The upper deck is similar to an A330 or A340, while the main deck offers more width than the 747, which translates into more comfort but does not give the temptation to squeeze in an extra seat in each row. Whatever the class of travel, you can find space on one of the decks to give unprecedented numbers of passengers the aisle or window seats they invariably request. The cargo hold offers full standing height and can accommodate a variety of passenger facilities.

Among the airlines which have no early need for a 550-seat aircraft, several are already used to making profit out of the Combi concept, and are expecting to operate the Combi variant of the A3XX-100. The latter will typically carry a similar passenger load to an all-passenger 747-400,plus a further 11 pallets of cargo which will generate significant extra revenue. Cargo carriers have shown considerable interest in a dedicated freighter variant. Air cargo is expected to show continued strong growth, and 60% of traffic is intercontinental hub-to-hub. This is where a 150 ton payload A3XX-100 Freighter will help accommodate growth, more profitably than ever.

Fast turn-around between flights has a major effect on productivity as well as gate occupancy. The twin-aisle, twin-deck concept, together with the wide, dual-lane stairs, allows distinct passenger flows to be directed to and from each cabin. We have conducted rigorous analyses and flow rate measurements, which indicate that the simultaneous use of two boarding bridges will allow the A3XX turn-around times to be within the time envelope of today’s 747 operations.

After studying the industry’s needs, we have decided to first introduce a 550 seater, the A3XX-100 to the market. However, the versatility of a new design allows us to consider several derivatives of this baseline aircraft in order to cover all the market’s requirements:

One: we will develop its range and its capacity, offering the A3XX-100R (555 seats/8750 nautical miles) and A3XX-200 (656 seats/7650NM),

Two: a smaller variant, the A3XX-50 (480 seats/7650 NM), and a version aimed at short-range, high-cycle operations, are under study:

Three: we also intend to enrich the product line with Combi and dedicated Freighter aircraft.

The selection among these potential derivatives, and their Entry Into Service dates, will depend exclusively upon the requirements of the airlines.

Faithful to Airbus Industrie’s philosophy, we are designing the A3XX variants so that they constitute a consistent family. In that respect, the various A3XX models will benefit from full operational commonality with each other. The A3XX will also be part of the wider Airbus family, with many features common to our existing fly-by-wire aircraft as well as similar operational characteristics For example, Cross Crew Qualification will be kept, allowing considerable savings for the airlines.

The A3XX appeals to some of the most demanding airlines in the world. These customers rightly expect improvements across the board, not least in terms of productivity. From the outset, we have planned the A3XX family so that it offers a quantum leap in productivity through:

One: increased capacity and range enabling airlines to offer significantly more seat-miles on each flight;

Two: fast turn-arounds, meaning less time spent on the ground;

Three: a real development potential, with the Combi and Freighter variants which will multiply the number of ways to operate the A3XX profitably.

The Boeing 747-400 is the natural benchmark against which the A3XX will be measured: the core group of A3XX airlines have asked us to design the 747 successor with considerably reduced operating costs. Though very ambitious, their target is achievable, given the tremendous progress which has been made in the thirty years since the 747 was conceived. The technology flying in A330s and A340s today, combined with economies of scale, will enable us to reach these targets. We will achieve further savings thanks to judicious use of new technology, the fruit of intensive research and rigorous testing. Together with our customers, we will select and validate the new technology to be used in the A3XX; the decisive criterion will be cost-effectiveness, with the emphasis on reliability and service readiness.

Environmentally, the A3XX will, indeed, be a friendly green giant. The airplane will comply with the most stringent proposals for future noise certification limits envisaged by ICAO. Our target is to make the A3XX both larger and quieter than its predecessors: even though seating 30-50% more passengers, it will be quieter at each of the three standard noise measurement points (flyover, sideline and approach).

Despite its larger size, its emissions in the Landing-Take-off cycle will be at the bottom end of the spectrum of 747 emissions, and will be well below both current and expected regulations limiting emissions of nitrous oxides. As usual, we make it a point of honor to reconcile economy and ecology: by burning up to 20% less fuel per passenger transported than the 747-400, the A3XX will also minimize gaseous emissions in the high atmosphere, even though they are not regulated.

The world’s major airports need larger aircraft to cope with growth. Consequently, they are working with us to help design an aircraft which they can handle with minimum modification to the infrastructure. Runway length required for take-off or landing will be no more than that needed by the 747-400. Likewise, the weight of the A3XX will be distributed over its landing gear to ensure that it exerts a comparable pavement loading. A3XX ground maneuvering will be possible on today’s airports. In a few cases, simple and established techniques (re-filleting taxiway intersections or oversteering in turns) may have to be used. Most of these changes will be made for longer aircraft entering service before the A3XX. We have designed each member of the A3XX family so that, on the ground, it fits within an 80M by 80M box (corresponding to the span adopted by ICAO and the FAA and to the length recommended by Airports Council International. Even for airports which may need to invest, the A3XX which will make more efficient use of space than any other aircraft and will bring the cheapest solution to the recognized ground and air-side challenges that future growth will bring.

The A3XX will be a global airplane and many around the globe will participate in the program. Airbus keeps regular contacts with over fifty major airports including all those which might expect to see early A3XX operations. We exchange technical data on both aircraft and infrastructure planning to ensure effective integration of A3XX operations at minimum cost, while respecting all planned environmental regulations.

We will award up to 40% of the A3XX program to new risk-sharing partners. Our offers for industrial cooperation have met considerable success, with agreements already signed with nine companies: Aerostructures, Alenia, Belairbus, Eurocopter, Finavitec, Fokker (Stork), GKN Westland, Latecoere, and Saab. Most of them have already seconded staff to the Airbus Large Aircraft Division, while discussions are continuing with other potential partners in Asia, North America and Europe. Today, some 800 companies in the United States participate in Airbus programs; they produce $5 billion worth of exports annually which creates 100,000 jobs. Major airlines world-wide have joined us in designing the A3XX and have participated in numerous on-going workshops and regular program reviews since 1996. Thus, our potential customers are playing a major role in the design of the airplane.

While the specific launch date has not yet been announced, it will come about in tune and time with the market. The pace is picking up and Airbus and its partners have substantially increased the resources allocated to the A3XX.

We are well aware of the competitive cry that there is no need for another new big airplane. Thirty years ago the message was: ‘airlines will never put 250 people on a wide-body airplane with just two engines’. Well, we built it and they do. When Airbus announced its first single aisle airplane - the A320- the counter was the world doesn’t need another 150-seat airplane. Two weeks ago we delivered to United Airlines the 1001st A320 family airplane. When Airbus launched its first wide-body medium to long-range aircraft, the response again was the market is suitably served already. No need for new airplanes. (PAUSE) Every single one of those Airbus initiatives was met with a new competitive model or derivative. Why would that happen if there was no market? Until yesterday, we were hearing that same refrain again -`There is no need for another large aircraft’. But, as in the past, and with the introduction of each new Airbus model, a competitive response was not far behind. It’s happening again. In the meantime, Airbus is moving forward rapidly with the A3XX - The Flagship of the 21st Century.

Thank you.