Archived Speeches
“Aviation Challenges For The New Millennium”
Remarks by the Honorable David Russell Hinson
to the Aero Club, March 21, 2000
I want to express my thanks and appreciation to the aero club for the privilege of having been invited to be the first speaker of the third millennium (21st century). As you know that opportunity was missed because of snow. I am equally flattered that you would ask me back so soon. The Aero Club has always been an important part of America’s aviation agenda and today your influence is needed more than ever.
I want to visit with you about two critical issues facing the civil aviation community and suggest some strategies that may be helpful as we seek solutions. The recent Air21 legislation is a very positive development and sets a number of important precedents. It also reminded me of a story I heard once about how the bible contains a perfect description of the way congress works.
It goes like this: The Acts, Chap. 19, Verse 32
"Some therefore cried one thing, and some another; for the assembly was confused; and the more part knew not wherefore they were come together. For we are in danger to be called in question for this day's uproar, there being no cause whereby we may give an account of this concourse. And when he had thus spoken he dismissed the assembly."
First, let me frame our discussion with a brief overview of the economic, political and technological circumstances existing within the United States and the world today.
Many observers have said the 21scentury is certain to be the American century. Consider this. Today the United States is the preeminent economic and military power in the world. The United States controls the world’s oceans, controls space and is likely to continue doing so for the foreseeable, future. Perhaps most importantly, the U.S. is the worlds leading technological economy. Specifically, the United States enjoys the position of developing and dominating the world’s computer culture. (Repeat)
The economic, military and technological preeminence of the United States is an important adjunct to the conversion of most nations to free market or free market look-alike economies. In the last 40 years or so, the world has migrated from an economic order that was about 35% centrally planned to an economic order that is, today, almost totally based upon free-market principles.
The worlds' economy, supported by proliferation of computer based technology, global banking, around-the-clock trading and eradication of trade barriers, is creating substantial amounts of new capital. Thus new capital will, in turn, help drive economic growth and demand worldwide.
It is this optimistic view of our economic future, both domestically and internationally, that should be our first alert to the potential for rapidly increasing demand in aviation services.
We also need to factor into this equation the demographic reality t14at the worlds population will grow from today’s six billion people to about 9 billion people by 2050. That is 50% more people than are here today! If that seems a long way off consider this: about half the people alive today will be alive then. (and they will all want the 5 pm shuttle to New York!)
If we accept the premise of more efficient economies worldwide, rapid expansion of computer based technology, political stability and the effects of social pressures from an increasing population, then worldwide demand for aviation services and infrastructure is certain to increase dramatically. Here is some data:
- The number of airline passengers within the U.S. is expected to grow from 660 million in 1999 to some 1.2 billion by 2020, almost a 100% increase in just 20 yrs.
- The number of air carrier jet aircraft in the U.S. is expected to grow from 5,575 in 1999 to 10,450 by 2020, almost a 100% increase.
- The number of air carrier discreet, departures in the U.S. is expected to increase by 40 to 50% from today’s levels by 2020.
- Strong growth is also expected in general and business aviation. We tend to forget that about 25% of all passengers that fly intercity within the U.S. do so in general aviation and business aircraft. Continued strong growth in general and business aviation is forecast for the foreseeable future.
Here we are then, knowing that we are most certainly entering an era of expansion, growth and prosperity in aviation that may be unprecedented. At the same time, however, there is a sense of unease about the future ability and capability of the government to provide the efficient regulatory oversight and efficient operational infrastructure that 14as been so important to the aviation industries’ past success.
It is this area of aviation policy that needs immediate public attention.
Since the Wright brothers first flew, the aviation community within the U.S. has enjoyed the benefits of visionary public policy that put into place laws and regulations and aviation infrastructure that really work.
But there are signs of distress within the system today. This past summer, called by some observers the airlines' summer of discontent should serve as an early warning. This past summer highlighted the two disciplines that can have the most serious impact on the potential for future success, namely airports and air traffic control.
The first discipline is airport capacity. Or I should say, lack of airport capacity. Consider these numbers: some 82% of all airline passengers in the U.S. fly between just 50 airports. Some 97% of all airline passengers fly between just the top 100 airports. For reference, about 400 airports in the U.S. have scheduled service.
As of today there are no new airports under construction within the U.S.!
As of today, at the top 50 airports in the U.S. there are only 3 new runways under construction, SEA, PHX, and MSP. In the top 100 airports only 22 new runways are planned by 2020.
Of the top 50 airports in the U.S. only 25 have the capability of simultaneous instrument approaches to 2 runways. Only 2 airports in the U.S. have the capability of simultaneous instrument approaches to 3 runways. No airports have the capability of simultaneous instrument approaches to 4 runways.
Airport capacity is a critical problem now and it will only get worse. And while new monies are on the table for the AIP program, money alone will not solve longer-term capacity issues. Local, state and federal govt. Agencies need to find a way to coordinate an orderly airport capacity enhancement effort. To help increase airport capacity, the AIP program needs to be redesigned to direct more dollars to those airports that have the most serious capacity constraints. For example, why not encourage the top 50 airports to plan for triple simultaneous instrument approach capability by offering a financial match on the ratio of four-to-one. There are, no doubt, other strategies that can help increase airport capacity. They should all be used and soon! Lack of airport capacity is the Achilles heel of our national aviation system.
The second discipline that requires our attention is air traffic control. This is, of course, not news. For the past several years, ATC has been the target of every airline CEO, every congressional oversight arm, both congressional aviation subcommittees as well as the aviation press. Some of the criticisms are appropriate and some are not. In theory, air 21 will provide the resources necessary to ensure a modern, efficient ATC system. However, as with airport capacity problems, money alone is not the answer.
The problems of ATC do not stem from a lack of money, a lack of professional skill, a lack of intent, a lack of knowledge or a lack of desire. ATC problems are organizational and, therefore, relatively permanent. ATC professionals are mired in bureaucratic quicksand. And here is the irony - ATC is nothing more than information processing, a science undergoing a technical revolution worldwide that the United States is leading! This information processing and computer technology revolution is making organizations lean and efficient. Worker productivity is increasing rapidly.
And what are we doing to the organization of our own ATC system? Just the opposite. Instead of unbundling and de-layering management levels and streamlining ATC decision-making, the FAA administrator will get a new management advisory board, ATC will get a new sub-advisory board and probably new oversight from congress. This is a recipe for organizational sclerosis. It’s hard to believe but we are actually making the quicksand deeper!
Fortunately there is a solution. It is imperative that ATC be separated from the FAA. There is such strong logic and so many sound reasons for creating a separate ATC entity that it must happen. Consider: a separate ATC organization will focus only on the science of ATC. It will have a board and CEO whose only interest is having the best ATC system in the world. This new entity will be insulated from the day to day political winds and reflexes that are inappropriate, time consuming and wasteful.
Now, there are many who say that the creation of a separate ATC entity is unnecessary, that ATC will always continue to be efficient and safe. Well, ATC will always be safe but as time goes by and the system becomes more and more crowded ATC’s efficiency must diminish. Said another way, leaving ATC as part of FAA will mean that ATC cannot be optimized as a public utility for the aviation community. There are simply too many bureaucratic impediments.
Various user groups have voiced other reasons for not separating ATC from the FAA. These concerns range from possible funding problems to the imposition of user-fees on general aviation. These issues can all be solved through legislation and regulatory changes that provide the same level of permanency and certainty that exists today.
Separating ATC from the FAA creates important collateral benefits as well. The FAA administrator, relieved of responsibility for ATC, can focus on the equally important business of certification, regulation, R&D, security, int'l aviation relations and airport development.
There is one additional important result of separating ATC from the FAA- safety oversight and monitoring would be conducted by the FAA on the ATC organization. This independent oversight does not exist today.
To conclude, the United States is facing a period of continuing rapid growth in aviation and related services. The organizations and infrastructure presently in place to support ties growth are clearly stressed. Unless deficiencies in airport capacity and ATC organization structure are addressed in a timely fashion, civil aviation commerce, within the U.S. will become less and less efficient.
In the past, when faced with serious problems in civil aviation, the U.S. congress has always acted. In 1938,1958 and 1966, the congress enacted major aviation legislation that was necessary to ensure the continued growth and public benefit that is derived from a healthy civil aviation sector.
The United States congress needs to act again, now. New legislation is needed to address the issues of airport capacity and air traffic control. The time for being timid is past.
Thank You.
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